The market implied probability of a Fed rate hike in December neared 100 percent, helping to drive short term interest rates higher. The 5/1 Hybrid ARM, which is more sensitive to short-term rates than the 30-year fixed mortgage, increased 10 basis points to 3.32 percent in this week’s survey. The spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage and 5/1 Hybrid ARM is just 58 basis points this week, the lowest spread since November of 2012.
Following a strong surge last week, rates held relatively flat this week. The 30-year mortgage rate remained unchanged at 3.94 percent, while the 10-year Treasury yield dipped roughly 4 basis points. The markets’ reaction to the upcoming announcement of the next Fed chair may impact the movement of rates in next week’s survey.